Friday, May 09, 2008
MOORE’s LAW AND MORE… (July E-News from 2SS.Com)
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‘ E – N E W S from ‘
‘ 2SS.Com ‘
‘ Compiled and Edited by ‘
‘ Mailed on: 07/01/2000 8:53 PM Number 24 ‘
‘ Int’l Standard Serial No. - ISSN: 1523-3537‘
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‘ In this issue (4 Items): ‘
‘ ================ ‘
‘ 1--MOORE’s LAW & MORE ‘
‘ 2--QUESTIONS? ‘
‘ 3--STRATEGIC-USEFUL–INTERESTING LINKS ‘
‘ 4--WHY SUBSCRIBE?, 2SS.Com & YOUR ‘
‘ SUBSCRIPTION. ‘
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‘ --------------------------Item One---------------------- ‘
‘ MOORE’s LAW & MORE… ‘
‘ Wall street has lost the ‘Dot.Com’ sparkle from ‘
‘ it’s late 1990’s eye as new economy stock ‘
‘ prices have tumbled and some highly visible ‘
‘ ventures (like ToySmart.Com) have even gone ‘
‘ out of business. So is the steam out of the ‘
‘ revolution? ‘
‘ Hardly! The ‘dot.com’ engine is still just revving- ‘
up thanks to the underlying tidal wave of ‘
‘ computing power predicted by Moore’s Law. ‘
‘ Moore’s 1965 Law (by Gordon Moore, Intel co- ‘
‘ founder) states simply that the performance of ‘
‘ integrated circuits will double every 18 months. ‘
‘ In that year (1965) the most complex chip had ‘
‘ 64 transistors. This theory remained correct
‘ just 13 years later when the 1978 – Cray I ‘
‘ supercomputer generated 160 MM instructions ‘
‘ per second at a cost of approx. $20 MM. ‘
‘ It was still true in 1995 as Sony sold it’s ‘
‘ Playstation a 500 MM instructions per second
‘ device that cost consumers about $299.99 at ‘
‘ Toys-R-Us ‘
‘ In October 1999 Intel's Pentium III, had 28 ‘
‘ million transistors. ‘
‘ Actually in the late 1970s the doubling period ‘
‘ slowed to 18 months and remained there
‘ till at least late 1999. More to the point it ‘
‘ might be said that Moore's Law is self-fulfilling in
‘ that somebody, somewhere is going to be able ‘
‘ to build a better chip then you if you rest on ‘
‘ your laurels, so you'd better start pushing hard ‘
‘ on the problem. Obviously Intel and Dr. Moore ‘
‘ understood that early in the game. ‘
‘ Recently Moore’s Law got a technological ‘
‘ extension from Bell researchers who pushed
’ past a limit on the smallest transistors. ‘
‘ Scientists had estimated that chip makers had ‘
‘ as few as six years to find new chip materials ‘
‘ that might maintain the pace of miniaturization. ‘
‘ On Thursday June 24, 1999 they got another 6+ ‘
‘ years when the Bell Labs team determined that ‘
‘ the industry wouldn't actually hit the size limit ‘
‘ until 2012. ‘
‘ The critical factor was the size-limiting structure ‘
‘ of chips utilizing a layer of insulating material ‘
‘ known as gate oxide. Bell Labs David Muller
‘ noted that… "As you shrink the chips down, the
‘ gate oxide has to shrink as well. Since it is the
‘ smallest feature, it is running out of space the ‘
‘ fastest. After 2012, we will have to switch to ‘
‘ alternative materials for gate oxide," said Muller. ‘
‘ Folks at IBM recently announced a breakthrough ‘
‘ of similar proportion. They found a way to make ‘
‘ chips on copper rather than aluminum. Copper's ‘
‘ better electrical characteristics also yield smaller, ‘
‘ faster gates. ‘
‘ So there need be no fear among anyone who ‘
‘ might be worried about the laws of physics and ‘
‘ our increasingly endless appetite for computer ‘
‘ performance. Advancements like these will ‘
‘ very likely keep us in fast chips for some time to ‘
‘ come. And for all those investors out there who ‘
‘ blindly assume that Moore's Law (more correctly ‘
‘ prediction) really is law and that the tidal wave will
‘ continue forever, go right ahead, despite the odds ‘
‘ (or maybe because of them) we're still on track.
‘ No one really knows how long Moore's Law will ‘
‘ hold, but for now, we're living in some fantastic ‘
‘ more processing power for less times. By 2010
‘ or so, we're likely to have computers that rival ‘
‘ the complexity of the human brain. At that point ‘
‘ you might want to join us in asking “Then what?” ‘
‘ with concern for far more than just how to invest
‘ your money. ‘
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‘ --------------------------Item Two----------------------- ‘
‘ QUESTIONS? ‘
‘ ------------------------------------------------------------- ‘
‘ STILL ROOM FOR INNOVATION ON THE I-NET? ‘
‘ A rhetorical question. Maybe but who would ‘
‘ agree that a ‘Good Opportunity’ would be to ‘
‘ invest in selling PC’s via a new Internet start-up. ‘
‘ Ignoring conventional wisdom, eMachines Inc., ‘
‘ debuted in November 1999, assembled a ‘
‘ formula that allowed them to purchase compon-
‘ ents while still undercutting competitors such as ‘
‘ Hewlett-Packard Co., IBM and Compaq on the ‘
‘ retail shelves. In 2000 eMachines is among the ‘
‘ top five U.S. PC retailers. ‘
‘ E-MAIL ZAPLETS THE NEXT BIG THING? ‘
‘ There’s a great deal more to come in how we ‘
‘ think about and use E-Mail. It’s already the ‘
‘ Internet’s secret ‘Killer-Application’. A ‘
‘ company called Firedrop plans to introduce ‘
‘ ‘Zaplets’, mini-applications that arrive in a ‘
‘ user's in box like normal e-mail. But Zaplets ‘
‘ are more like Web pages than messages. An ‘
‘ HR manager might for example send out a ‘
‘ Zaplet to gauge employees' interest in a new ‘
‘ benefit option. As each recipient responds to a ‘
‘ question, the Zaplet tabulates the answer and ‘
‘ updates itself. Each time the manager opens ‘
‘ the original message, it displays the latest results ‘
‘ of the automated employee survey. ‘
‘ E-Mail is powerful and at 2SS.Com we believe ‘
‘ the idea of how to use E-mail and what it’s good ‘
‘ for will change radically over the next several ‘
‘ years. ‘
‘ WHERE DO YOU GET THIS STUFF? ‘
‘ 2SS.Com has a rather extensive E-Mail news ‘
‘ clipping-file (Write us for an article on starting ‘
‘ a clipping-file of you own) running back to late ‘
‘ 1995. In fact a search for on the phrase “Moore’s ‘
‘ Law” generated 12+ citings several of which ‘
‘ were used in researching this issue’s lead article. ‘
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‘ ----------------------Item Three------------------------ ‘
‘ STRATEGIC-USEFUL-INTERESTING LINKS ‘
‘ ------------------------------------------------------------- ‘
‘ 1. Moore’s Law according to the MSN - Slate ‘
‘ Explainer ‘
http://slate.msn.com/code/Explainer/Explainer.asp?Show=10/14/99&idMessage=3829 ‘
‘ 2. For help in planning, composing and presenting ‘
‘ your presentation to an audience that can be ‘
‘ virtually anywhere try www.astound.com and/or ‘
‘ www.envoy.com. Astound let’s you do it free ‘
‘ to a small audience and can manage up to 500 ‘
‘ although with a large audience (e.g. 1000 or ‘
‘ more) Envoy may be the best bet at #35 to ‘
‘ $75 per participant. Or lease a conference ‘
‘ center for $500 a month. ‘
‘ MetaSearch engines call on many search ‘
‘ engines and try to compile the results for you
‘ into a meaningful presentation. You might try: ‘
’ 3. www.dogpile.com ‘
‘ 4. www.infind.com ‘
‘ 5. www.mamma.com ‘
‘ 6. www.savvysearch.com ‘
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‘ -------------------------Item Four----------------------- ‘
‘ WHY SUBSCRIBE? ‘
‘ 2SS.Com & YOUR SUBSCRIPTION ‘
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